IDC expects global phone shipments to fall 16.7% in 2026
Memory costs up more than 300 per cent push the average selling price to USD 581, with the cheapest phones disappearing fastest.
Reported, not announced. The details below come from press reports rather than a manufacturer announcement.
The details
- IDC forecasts worldwide smartphone shipments will decline 16.7 per cent in 2026, to just over 1 billion units.
- Second-half 2026 shipments are forecast to fall 27.2 per cent year on year.
- Average selling price is forecast at USD 581, up 27.6 per cent year on year.
- Total market value is forecast to rise 6.3 per cent to USD 613 billion despite the volume drop.
- NAND and DRAM costs are cited as up more than 300 per cent year on year.
- Android volumes are forecast down 24.3 per cent in 2026, with Android share down about 7 percentage points.
- iOS shipments are forecast down only 1.3 per cent, lifting iOS share nearly 4 points to a record 23.6 per cent.
- HarmonyOS volume is forecast to almost triple, to 51 million units.
- Emerging markets are forecast to decline by more than 20 per cent.
- 173 million smartphones priced below USD 100 shipped last year; that segment fell about 60 per cent year on year in Q2 2026.
- Foldables are forecast to grow 12.6 per cent to 22.9 million units in 2026, with about 18 per cent growth expected in 2027.
Why it matters
It sets the scale of the 2026 memory-cost shock: fewer phones sold worldwide, each one more expensive, with the cheapest tiers vanishing first.