IDC deepens 2026 smartphone forecast to a record 16.7% decline as memory costs climb nearly 300%
IDC now expects global smartphone shipments to fall 16.7% in 2026 to just over 1 billion units, the steepest annual drop it has ever recorded and a sharp downgrade from the 12.9% decline it forecast in February. The cause is a memory squeeze: memory costs are up nearly 300% year on year as AI data-centre buildouts absorb supply, pushing the average selling price up 27.6% to $581. Second-half shipments are forecast to fall 27.2%, with low-end Android makers hit hardest while Apple and Samsung gain share.
Reported, not announced. The details below come from press reports rather than a manufacturer announcement.
The details
- IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker forecasts that global smartphone shipments will fall 16.7% in 2026 to just over 1 billion units, which IDC describes as the steepest annual decline it has recorded, and a downgrade from the 13.9% decline it had projected one quarter earlier.
- In February 2026, Reuters reported IDC's earlier forecast of a 12.9% drop to 1.12 billion units, which IDC already called the biggest decline on record and a more-than-decade low.
- IDC now expects the 2026 average selling price to rise 27.6% to $581, up from an earlier projection of $550, having forecast in February only a 14% rise to a then-record $523.
- Total smartphone market value is still forecast to grow 6.3% in 2026 to $613 billion, because higher prices more than offset the fall in unit volumes.
- IDC forecasts that shipments in the second half of 2026 will drop 27.2% year on year, a far steeper fall than in the first half.
- IDC's Nabila Popal says memory costs are up nearly 300% from a year ago and now account for over 65% of the bill of materials at the low end, with memory prices expected to continue increasing until at least 2028.
- Global shipments in the second quarter of 2026 fell 7.4% year on year to 276.3 million units, with Samsung up 8.1% to 62.7 million and Apple up 14.9% to 55.7 million, while Xiaomi fell 26.4% to 31.2 million, OPPO fell 17.1% to 28.9 million, vivo fell 19.6% to 21.2 million and Huawei grew 19.9%.
- IDC says the 173 million smartphones below $100 that shipped last year are facing an existential crisis: the segment saw an almost 60% year-on-year drop in the second quarter of 2026 and is expected to fall faster in the second half, with memory supply not expected to stabilise until 2028.
- Foldable shipments are the exception in IDC's 2026 forecast, projected to grow 12.6% to 22.9 million units, driven largely by Apple's entry into the category in the second half of the year.