IDC forecasts the worst phone shipment year on record
IDC now expects shipments to fall 16.7 percent in 2026 while the average selling price climbs to 581 dollars. Counterpoint's separate forecast puts the fall at 13.9 percent.
The details
- IDC forecast on 26 August 2026 that worldwide smartphone shipments will fall 16.7% in 2026 to just over 1 billion units, which it describes as the steepest annual contraction it has recorded.
- That is a downgrade from the 13.9% decline IDC forecast one quarter earlier.
- IDC expects the second half of 2026 to fall 27.2% year on year as the memory shortage bites hardest.
- IDC puts the 2026 average selling price at 581 US dollars, up 27.6% year on year, with total market value still rising 6.3% to 613 billion US dollars.
- IDC says NAND and DRAM costs are up more than 300% year on year, the main driver behind those price rises.
- By platform IDC expects Android shipments down 24.3% and iOS down 1.3%, taking iOS to 23.6% share, up almost four percentage points.
- IDC expects foldables to grow 12.6% to 22.9 million units and HarmonyOS to reach around 51 million units.
- Counterpoint Research forecast on 31 May 2026 a 13.9% fall to 1.08 billion units, the lowest since 2013, with Samsung down 4%, Xiaomi down 28% and Transsion down 32%.
- Counterpoint expects the sub-150-dollar tier to be squeezed hardest and the refurbished market to grow 13% in 2026.
- TrendForce forecast on 3 July 2026 that conventional DRAM contract prices would rise 13-18% quarter on quarter in 3Q26 and NAND contract prices 10-15%, and said phone makers were expected to raise retail prices in the third quarter to cover LPDRAM costs.
Why it matters
Buyers are paying meaningfully more for the same tier of phone than a year ago, and the cheapest tiers are thinning out fastest. If you are holding an older handset, the trade-off between repairing it and replacing it has shifted, and second-hand stock is the segment forecast to grow.